fatpat

引用:

原帖由 fatpat 於 2011-3-4 09:43 發表

Initial credit $1M

Trade                         Margin
  1       LP224 @212 $    10600 (212pt x $50/pt = $10600)   <-- Expired
  2       SP226 @255 $      2960                                                   <-- Expired
  3       SP228 @327 $    53455                                                   <-- Expired
  4       LC230 @480 $    74037 (480pt x $50/pt = $24000)   <-- 234-230 = +400pts
  5       LC236 @225 $  100038 (225pt x $50/pt = $11250)   <-- Expired
  6       SC232 @411 $    70120                                                   <-- 230-232 = -200pts
  7       SC234 @320 $    53706                                                   <-- Expired
  8       LP230 @360 $      5920                                                   <-- Expired
Nett 36pt + Bonus (Mar close within 22400 - 23600)            <--            Nett +200pts ...

Finally close around 23400, max profit gain ~236pts = $11,800

Assume use half of the credit (1M) $500,000 to buy 80sets,
total profit = 80 x $11800 = $944,000

Around 94% gain .

Too bad the demo account expired and cannot check the final balance

Even worse, it is not my real money account

[ 本帖最後由 fatpat 於 2011-3-31 09:31 編輯 ]

fatpat

Debit (-ve) is NORMAL!!

I 'm still learning to use the TA (Technical Analysis, aka graph)
so I use all the prediction from our C-Hings :-)

Since Apr up +1000pts already (from 23000 to 24000)
assume Apr close at 24000

This month will try

Current price (Apr 4 1426)
                       Bid     Ask
1) L246C @179 / 181
2) S244C @247 / 250
3) S240C @431 / 436
4) L238C @549 / 557
Thus all contracts buy / sell at market will give a debit -60pts

5) L242P @445 / 453
6) S240P @350 / 354
7) S236P @202 / 206
8) L234P @151 / 155
Thus all contracts buy / sell at market will give a debit -56pts

This set will win at range 23456 - 24540

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 fatpat 於 2011-4-4 14:37 發表
Debit (-ve) is NORMAL!!

I 'm still learning to use the TA (Technical Analysis, aka graph)
so I use all the prediction from our C-Hings :-)

Since Apr up +1000pts already (from 23000 to 24000)
assume  ...

To make it a credit (+ve) condor / cost less,
Will try to SC / LP at around HSIFUT 24130 (DH 24135),
so using the delta to estimate the premium ,
then LC / SP at around closing.

Most C-Hings predict a correction later today .

fatpat

Even better, all the US index are at their resistance level.

I'm looking for a dip tonight and tomorrow.

So LC / SP after the holiday seems a good deal too .

Of course, there is risk to do the naked call ,
but if my prediction is wrong, we can do something
to save our contracts later.

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 fatpat 於 2011-4-4 14:37 發表
This set will win at range 23456 - 24540  ...

This set will win at range 23516 - 24486

fatpat

Since the DEMO account is not working,
only enter one trade

1) S244C @280

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 fatpat 於 2011-4-4 16:19 發表
Since the DEMO account is not working,
only enter one trade

1) S244C @280

Too bad the S240C I had asked for 495 but it was closed at 490 only on 4/4 .

Otherwise, using this morning price

L246C @180 <- This morning, will be lower later   
S244C @280 <- Done
S240C @490 <- Miss by 5 pts
L238C @570 <- This morning, will be lower later  

Nett +20pts, which is more than enough to cover the commissions etc.

Why not take the profit of the S244C and leave ?
Because I'm greedy and hope Apr will close around 24300 and have 200pts profit
=> very little cost : 200pts (max profit)

fatpat

Assume May is up (1000+), after yesterday drop, it is a good time to long call.

Current HSIK1 @23661, so

                  Bid   Ask
L240C @  478   486
L248C @  184   189

[ 本帖最後由 fatpat 於 2011-4-28 09:21 編輯 ]

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 fatpat 於 2011-4-28 09:14 發表
Assume May is up (1000+), after yesterday drop, it is a good time to long call.

Current HSIK1 @23661, so

                  Bid   Ask
L240C @  478   486
L248C @  184   189

L240C @166
L248C @442